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The Japanese yen faces new risks. Strategists worry that the Bank of Japan may wait until March or later to raise interest rates. A new risk is emerging for the Japanese yen. Foreign exchange strategists in Tokyo warn that the Bank of Japan may wait until March or later next year to raise interest rates. On Wednesday, the market tasted this danger, and the yen fell to its lowest level in more than two weeks as traders responded to a Bloomberg report that the Bank of Japan is known to think that it is no harm to raise interest rates later. The yen only fell to 152.82 against the dollar, and the market is still debating whether the Bank of Japan will take action at its next meeting on December 19 or about a month later. Shusuke Yamada, head of Japan's foreign exchange and interest rate strategy at Bank of America in Tokyo, said that if policymakers put off raising interest rates for a longer time, the situation would be very different. "If the interest rate hike is postponed until March, the yen carry trade is likely to make a comeback," Yamada said on Thursday. "The yen is likely to fall again to a level just below the 157 mark hit in 155 or November."President of Hilton Asia Pacific: India's outbound travel will be the story of the next decade. According to the data of the World Tourism and Travel Council, in 2023, Indian tourists spent $34.2 billion on outbound travel. Allen Watts, president of Hilton Asia Pacific, said that compared with the future, the current level of Indian outbound travel consumption is "negligible". "The story of India is unfolding before us," he said. "India's outbound travel will be the story of the next decade." According to the World Tourism and Travel Council's Economic Impact in 2024 report, by 2034, the outbound spending of Indian tourists is expected to more than double, reaching 76.8 billion US dollars, which will make India's position in the global tourism consumption country rise from the 12th in 2023 to the 7th.The Polish minister said that Poland hopes that more countries will participate in Baltic policing, the EU must spend at least 100 billion euros on national defense, and the conditions for sending Polish MIG -29 fighters to Ukraine have not been met.

Interbank certificates of deposit funds are popular. In the context of the current downward trend of non-bank interbank deposit rates, interbank deposit rates are relatively more attractive, and interbank deposit funds have recently gained popularity. Since December, the 7-day holding fund of AAA index of China Securities Interbank Deposits issued by BlackRock Fund and Agricultural Bank of China Credit Suisse Fund has reached the upper limit of 5 billion yuan, and triggered proportional placement. Both funds are partially confirmed by the principle of "doomsday ratio confirmation", and the doomsday confirmation ratio is 73.36% and 27.02% respectively. In addition, Huatai Bairui Fund and China-Canada Fund also imposed subscription restrictions on their 7-day holding funds of the AAA Index of China Securities Interbank Deposits. From December 11th, the amount of multiple cumulative subscriptions (including conversion and fixed investment) for a single fund account of Huatai Bairui CSI Interbank Deposit Certificate AAA Index 7-day holding fund shall not exceed 100,000 yuan; From December 6th, the subscription amount of a single investor of the 7-day holding fund of China-Canada CSI Interbank Deposit Certificate AAA Index will not exceed 10 million yuan (except for individual investors and public asset management products). (CSI Taurus)The RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate again at the end of the year. The research team of the Financial Market Department of Agricultural Bank of China said that the market transactions have shown obvious narrative-driven characteristics in recent years. Considering some recent changes, the RMB exchange rate is expected to stabilize and rebound again in the future. First, the pricing of Trump transactions in the international market has come to an end. Second, there has been a major shift in domestic macro policies. Since late September, financial policies such as lowering the RRR, cutting interest rates, supporting the stock market and the real estate market, and fiscal debt measures have boosted market confidence. Third, there has been a favorable change in supply and demand in the domestic foreign exchange market. The end of the year is the traditional peak season for enterprises to settle foreign exchange, and the continuous forward discount will lead to the backlog of foreign exchange settlement, which will further amplify the demand for foreign exchange settlement at the end of the year. Further considering the overall situation of the game between China and the United States, Trump's return not only means the enhancement of external shocks, but also the upgrading of internal policies. The RMB exchange rate will maintain two-way fluctuations next year, and it is no longer a steady profit for enterprises to hold US dollars and postpone foreign exchange settlement. While stabilizing domestic foreign trade and foreign investment, continuing to expand high-level opening-up and expanding domestic demand in an all-round way implies the certainty of economic stabilization and recovery, which is expected to promote the return of short-term securities investment and medium-and long-term direct investment and help the RMB stop falling and rebound.IEA Monthly Report: The daily output of the refinery will reach the annual peak of 84.3 million barrels in December. It is estimated that in 2024, the daily output of the refinery will increase by 520,000 barrels to an average of 82.7 million barrels per day. It is estimated that in 2025, the daily output of refineries will increase by 620,000 barrels to an average of 83.3 million barrels per day.

Liu Shijin: To expand consumption, we should manage from the source, and give priority to improving basic public services and consumption of low-and middle-income groups. Liu Shijin, deputy director of the 13th Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference Economic Commission and former deputy director of the the State Council Development Research Center, pointed out in his speech at the main forum of the 2024 Southern Finance and Economics International Forum that the macro-economy is picking up, but it is also facing the increasing pressure of insufficient total demand, especially insufficient consumer demand, and the focus of which is insufficient service consumption. We should give priority to improving basic public services and the consumption environment of low-and middle-income groups through "source governance" to promote the integrated development of urban and rural areas. On the basis of short-term stimulus policies, combined with medium-and long-term reforms, we will solve the institutional problems that restrict the expansion of consumption and help China's economy achieve high-quality development. "At present, it is necessary to distinguish the problems caused by insufficient demand from the causes of insufficient demand." Liu Shijin pointed out that from the perspective of international comparison, the lack of consumption demand in China at this stage is a structural deviation. In Liu Shijin's view, it is necessary to identify the key points or pain points in expanding consumer demand at this stage. First, service consumption based on basic public services, including education, medical and health care, affordable housing, social security, culture, sports and entertainment, financial services, transportation and communication; Second, the middle and low-income class with migrant workers as the focus; Third, people-centered, urbanization and urban-rural integration. (21 Finance)Jingzhou, Hubei Province reported that a large drone fell: the drone crashed into a structure out of control during the test and caught fire, and one person was injured. On December 12, the emergency service center of Jingzhou Economic Development Zone, Hubei Province issued a briefing. At 11: 10 on the 12 th, a company was testing a fixed-wing drone, and the drone crashed into the structure and caught fire. At present, the fire has been put out, and one injured person is being fully treated. The cause of the accident is under investigation.The Japanese yen faces new risks. Strategists worry that the Bank of Japan may wait until March or later to raise interest rates. A new risk is emerging for the Japanese yen. Foreign exchange strategists in Tokyo warn that the Bank of Japan may wait until March or later next year to raise interest rates. On Wednesday, the market tasted this danger, and the yen fell to its lowest level in more than two weeks as traders responded to a Bloomberg report that the Bank of Japan is known to think that it is no harm to raise interest rates later. The yen only fell to 152.82 against the dollar, and the market is still debating whether the Bank of Japan will take action at its next meeting on December 19 or about a month later. Shusuke Yamada, head of Japan's foreign exchange and interest rate strategy at Bank of America in Tokyo, said that if policymakers put off raising interest rates for a longer time, the situation would be very different. "If the interest rate hike is postponed until March, the yen carry trade is likely to make a comeback," Yamada said on Thursday. "The yen is likely to fall again to a level just below the 157 mark hit in 155 or November."